Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Fed funds rate on Kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 6.00% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 236 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 80¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.70 | 81.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 4.50% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 305,156 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 4.00% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 258,728 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 4.25% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 136,258 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 3.75% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 98,144 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.00% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 50,117 | Dec 08, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 3.50% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 46,056 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.25% | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 26,401 | Jun 09, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting? · Above 5.50% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 25,589 | Dec 08, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 24,107 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 2.75% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 23,711 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.25% | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 22,941 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.00% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 20,947 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.25% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 16,864 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 16,237 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.25% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 14,791 | Mar 17, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.75% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 14,231 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 3.25% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 14,091 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.25% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,354 | Jan 27, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 27, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.00% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 12,281 | Oct 27, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 27, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.25% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 12,090 | Oct 27, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.25% | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 11,007 | Dec 08, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Sep 15, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.50% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 10,001 | Sep 15, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? · Above 3.00% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,062 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 1.25% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8,046 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.50% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 7,505 | Jan 27, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 2.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 7,474 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 2.75% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,637 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 2.50% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,591 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.00% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 6,338 | Jan 27, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.00% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 6,320 | Mar 17, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jun 9, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.50% | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,246 | Jun 09, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 2.25% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,227 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 4.50% | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 5,653 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? · Above 5.00% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 5,597 | Mar 17, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.00% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 5,580 | Jan 27, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 1.50% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,388 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? · Above 3.25% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,031 | Mar 17, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 1.00% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,973 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 0.75% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,797 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting? · Above 1.75% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,369 | Apr 28, 17:55 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 236 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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