What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 9¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 10% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 9%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Fed Dissent on Kalshi

If Philip Jefferson formally dissented at the December 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

18% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
9¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.19	9.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Kevin Warsh	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	19,501	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · John Williams	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,935	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Beth Hammack	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	1,058	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Jerome Powell	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,003	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Lorie Logan	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	572	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Lisa Cook	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	477	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Christopher Waller	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	384	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Philip Jefferson	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	135	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Anna Paulson	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	5	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Neel Kashkari	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	2	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Michelle Bowman	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	1	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC
Who will dissent at the December 2026 FOMC meeting? · Michael Barr	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	1	Dec 09, 18:55 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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