What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 7¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.25.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 7% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 7%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Total dissenting FOMC votes in year on Kalshi

If the total number of qualifying FOMC dissenting votes cast between January 1, 2027, and December 31, 2027, inclusive, in ET is at least 13, the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Information, MSNBC, CBS, the Associated Press, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Federal Open Market Committee, Fox News, The New York Times, NBC, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, the Federal Reserve, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

14% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.25	7.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 9 · Exactly 9	59¢	59%	1.7¢	—	82%	1,129	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 10 · Exactly 10	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	941	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 12 · Exactly 12	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	533	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2026: at least 13 · 13+	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	300	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2026: exactly 11 · Exactly 11	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	229	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: at least 13 · 13+	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	50	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 9 · Exactly 9	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 8 · Exactly 8	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 7 · Exactly 7	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 6 · Exactly 6	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 5 · Exactly 5	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 4 · Exactly 4	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 3 · Exactly 3	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 2 · Exactly 2	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 12 · Exactly 12	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 11 · Exactly 11	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 10 · Exactly 10	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 1 · Exactly 1	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Total Fed dissents in 2027: exactly 0 · Exactly 0	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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