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Fed funds rate at year end on Kalshi
If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 6.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 210 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.75%? · Above 3.75% | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 31,011 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.25%? · Above 4.25% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 29,251 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.00%? · Above 4.00% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 29,066 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.50%? · Above 4.50% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 25,663 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.25%? · Above 3.25% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 22,258 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.50%? · Above 3.50% | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 11,524 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.75%? · Above 2.75% | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 6,082 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 4.75%? · Above 4.75% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5,822 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 3.00%? · Above 3.00% | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,592 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.25%? · Above 1.25% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,588 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 1.00%? · Above 1.00% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,849 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 3.25%? · Above 3.25% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,812 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.25%? · Above 5.25% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,730 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 3.00%? · Above 3.00% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,617 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.00%? · Above 5.00% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,596 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 2.25%? · Above 2.25% | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,540 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.50%? · Above 2.50% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,314 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 1.25%? · Above 1.25% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 1,260 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 6.00%? · Above 6.00% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,207 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.25%? · Above 1.25% | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,131 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 1.75%? · Above 1.75% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,124 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 3.75%? · Above 3.75% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,106 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2031 be above 5.00%? · Above 5.00% | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 990 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 1.50%? · Above 1.50% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 972 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 2.00%? · Above 2.00% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 914 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 2.25%? · Above 2.25% | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 894 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 1.00%? · Above 1.00% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 790 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 5.50%? · Above 5.50% | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 643 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 1.25%? · Above 1.25% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 628 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029 be above 1.00%? · Above 1.00% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 617 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2035 be above 5.75%? · Above 5.75% | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 610 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 1.00%? · Above 1.00% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 596 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 2.50%? · Above 2.50% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 591 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 1.50%? · Above 1.50% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 567 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 5.75%? · Above 5.75% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 565 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028 be above 1.25%? · Above 1.25% | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 563 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027 be above 5.50%? · Above 5.50% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 518 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2030 be above 2.50%? · Above 2.50% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 493 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 4.00%? · Above 4.00% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 445 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2029 be above 1.25%? · Above 1.25% | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 444 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 210 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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