Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Fed governor nominee on Kalshi
If any person is nominated to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors after Issuance and before Feb 1, 2027. then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress, the President of the United States.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Stephen Miran | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 80,893 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Judy Shelton | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 62,789 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Christopher Waller | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 45,059 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Kevin Hassett | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 24,289 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Rick Rieder | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 23,902 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Marc Sumerlin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,629 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Michelle Bowman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 2,186 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate James Bullard as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · James Bullard | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,731 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Scott Bessent | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,390 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Lorie Logan as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Lorie Logan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 666 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 333 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 141 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · Philip Jefferson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 111 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump nominate David Malpass as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? · David Malpass | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 106 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 97 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 59 | Jul 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 56 | Oct 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will someone be nominated for a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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