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FIBA Europe Cup Spread on Kalshi
If Manchester Basketball wins by more than 6.5 points in the Elan Chalon vs Manchester Basketball men's professional FIBA Europe Cup basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIBA Europe Cup, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Basketball wins by over 6.5 points · Manchester Basketball wins by over 6.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Manchester Basketball wins by over 2.5 points · Manchester Basketball wins by over 2.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Manchester Basketball wins by over 22.5 points · Manchester Basketball wins by over 22.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Manchester Basketball wins by over 18.5 points · Manchester Basketball wins by over 18.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Manchester Basketball wins by over 14.5 points · Manchester Basketball wins by over 14.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Manchester Basketball wins by over 10.5 points · Manchester Basketball wins by over 10.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins by over 6.5 points · Elan Chalon wins by over 6.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins by over 2.5 points · Elan Chalon wins by over 2.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins by over 22.5 points · Elan Chalon wins by over 22.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins by over 18.5 points · Elan Chalon wins by over 18.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins by over 14.5 points · Elan Chalon wins by over 14.5 points | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins by over 10.5 points · Elan Chalon wins by over 10.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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