What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 65¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.23.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 67% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 65%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

First bill of the 120th Congress becomes law on Kalshi

If a bill passed by the 120th Congress has become law after Issuance and before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Library of Congress, the White House.

Market says (typical open contract)

65%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

70% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
65¢ (now)	1.6¢	$1.23	66.6%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	65¢	65%	1.6¢	—	70%	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Jan 15, 2027? · Before Jan 15, 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	Jan 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump sign a 120th Congress bill into law before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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