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Footwear Retail Ad Spend on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Footwear Retail Ad Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 78.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 97¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $0.11 | 97.2% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 50.5 ? · Above 50.5 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,000 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 58 ? · Above 58 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 250 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 78.5 ? · Above 78.5 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 67 ? · Above 67 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 44 ? · Above 44 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 37.5 ? · Above 37.5 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 27 ? · Above 27 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Footwear Retail Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 109.5 ? · Above 109.5 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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