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France Article 49.3 on the 2027 budget on Kalshi
If France agrees to or announces the use of Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to adopt, without a National Assembly vote, the 2027 state budget bill (projet de loi de finances pour 2027), in whole or in part before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Gouvernement de la République française, Assemblée nationale, Journal officiel de la République française (Légifrance), Reuters, the Associated Press.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 61¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.37 | 62.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France use Article 49.3 on its 2027 state budget before Jan 1, 2027? · Yes | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 588 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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