Markets › Kalshi › Elections
French presidential election: who will advance? on Kalshi
If Christine Lagarde is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Marine Le Pen | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 9,627 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,572 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Édouard Philippe | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 2,391 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · François Hollande | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,008 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Bardella qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Jordan Bardella | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 252 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Raphaël Glucksmann | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 145 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Bernard Cazeneuve | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 80 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Retailleau qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Bruno Retailleau | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 10 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Lisnard qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · David Lisnard | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 10 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Olivier Faure qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Olivier Faure | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sébastien Lecornu qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Sébastien Lecornu | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Élisabeth Borne qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Élisabeth Borne | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dominique de Villepin qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Dominique de Villepin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Gabriel Attal | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Christine Lagarde qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election? · Christine Lagarde | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Apr 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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