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Any free trade agreement on Kalshi

If a free trade agreement with any country has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
38¢ (now)1.6¢$2.1739.6%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 20, 2029? · Before Jan 20, 202938¢38%1.6¢—75%25,693Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with any country before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 202818¢18%1.0¢—36%0Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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