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Game Awards on Kalshi
If Genshin Impact has won Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Game Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 89 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Grand Theft Auto VI | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 565,489 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Crimson Desert | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 476,878 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Resident Evil Requiem | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 352,159 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Phantom Blade Zero | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 222,773 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Control Resonant | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 170,047 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Marvel's Wolverine | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 160,164 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Pragmata | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 152,998 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Big Walk | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 111,562 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · The Blood of Dawnwalker | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 83,846 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Onimusha: Way of the Sword | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 83,539 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Half-Life 3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 79,162 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Fable | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 76,151 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 71,234 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Slay the Spire 2 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 48,693 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Saros | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 41,441 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Stranger Than Heaven | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40,971 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · The Duskbloods | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 38,606 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Marathon | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 31,302 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 007 First Light win the 2026 Game Award for Game of the Year? · 007 First Light | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 19,006 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Deadlock win the 2026 Game Award for Best Multiplayer? · Deadlock | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 18,862 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mina the Hollower win the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game? · Mina the Hollower | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 9,815 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Big Walk win the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game? · Big Walk | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 8,170 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gears of War: E-Day win the 2026 Game Award for Game of the Year? · Gears of War: E-Day | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,968 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win the 2026 Game Award for Best Narrative? · Grand Theft Auto VI | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 5,702 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Cairn | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,648 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gears of War: E-Day win the 2026 Game Award for Best Multiplayer? · Gears of War: E-Day | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,247 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mewgenics win the 2026 Game Award for Game of the Year? · Mewgenics | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,186 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Exoborne win the 2026 Game Award for Best Multiplayer? · Exoborne | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,117 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Game of the Year? · Esoteric Ebb | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,463 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI win the 2026 Game Award for Best Audio Design? · Grand Theft Auto VI | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4,327 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Schrödinger's Call win the 2026 Game Award for Best Narrative? · Schrödinger's Call | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,047 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mina the Hollower win the 2026 Game Award for Game of the Year? · Mina the Hollower | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,757 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Monster Hunter Outlanders win the 2026 Game Award for Best Mobile Game? · Monster Hunter Outlanders | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 3,589 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mewgenics win the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game? · Mewgenics | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,422 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Order of the Sinking Star win the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game? · Order of the Sinking Star | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,306 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Replaced win the 2026 Game Award for Best Independent Game? · Replaced | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,213 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win the 2026 Game Award for Best Mobile Game? · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,107 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Big Walk win the 2026 Game Award for Best Multiplayer? · Big Walk | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,967 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Onimusha: Way of the Sword win the 2026 Game Award for Best Audio Design? · Onimusha: Way of the Sword | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,837 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 007 First Light win the 2026 Game Award for Best Audio Design? · 007 First Light | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,612 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 89 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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