Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment
Will game be released this year on Kalshi
If Iron Man is fully released before Jan 1, 2027 on any platform in the United States, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Steam.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Half-Life 3 release this year? · Half-Life 3 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 105,955 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Squadron 42 release this year? · Squadron 42 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 75,355 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Final Fantasy VII Remake #3 release this year? · Final Fantasy VII Remake #3 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,510 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year? · Kingdom Hearts 4 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16,815 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Theft Auto VI release this year? · Grand Theft Auto VI | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,675 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Light No Fire release this year? · Light No Fire | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 8,964 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release this year? · The Elder Scrolls 6 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 8,397 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Duskbloods release this year? · The Duskbloods | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,965 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Super Mario Galaxy 3 release this year? · Super Mario Galaxy 3 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,735 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iron Man release this year? · Iron Man | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,192 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Haunted Chocolatier release this year? · Haunted Chocolatier | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,621 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ARK 2 release this year? · ARK 2 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,137 | Jan 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.