Markets › Kalshi › Economics
US GDP growth on Kalshi
If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 4.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Market says (typical open contract)
67%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
66% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q1 2027? · Above 3.5% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 55,073 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q4 2026? · Above 3.5% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 53,096 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q1 2027? · Above 4.0% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 36,841 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.5% in Q2 2027? · Above 3.5% | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 11,099 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026? · Above 1.5% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,536 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q4 2026? · Above 2.0% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 2,758 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q4 2026? · Above 1.0% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,669 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q4 2026? · Above 4.0% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,625 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q2 2027? · Above 4.0% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,253 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q4 2026? · Above 2.5% | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 946 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q1 2027? · Above 2.0% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 899 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q1 2027? · Above 1.0% | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 671 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q2 2027? · Above 0.0% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 655 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q2 2027? · Above 2.0% | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 643 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q2 2027? · Above 1.5% | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 606 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q1 2027? · Above 0.5% | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 520 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q2 2027? · Above 0.5% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 453 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q1 2027? · Above 2.5% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 387 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q4 2026? · Above 0.5% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 377 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q2 2027? · Above 3.0% | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 364 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.5% in Q2 2027? · Above 2.5% | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 353 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q1 2027? · Above 0.0% | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 325 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q1 2027? · Above 3.0% | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 291 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q1 2027? · Above 1.5% | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 272 | Apr 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q4 2026? · Above 3.0% | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 258 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q2 2027? · Above 1.0% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 258 | Jul 29, 12:29 UTC |
| Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q4 2026? · Above 0.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 138 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.