What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.59.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Nominal GDP on Kalshi

If India Nominal GDP is above $3.9 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 159 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

91% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
55¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.57	56.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.7 trillion	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	10,951	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $32.0 trillion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	6,364	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
France Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.3 trillion	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	6,259	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
France Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $3.4 trillion	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	5,408	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
France Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.4 trillion	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,283	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $30.6 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,247	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
India Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.4 trillion	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	5,035	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $30.8 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,691	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $31.6 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,598	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $31.4 trillion	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	4,565	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
UK Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $3.9 trillion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	4,094	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $5.1 trillion	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	3,998	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
UK Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.0 trillion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	3,720	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
India Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.2 trillion	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	3,589	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
China Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $20.2 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,431	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $31.0 trillion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	2,638	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.9 trillion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	2,390	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
China Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $20.0 trillion	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,359	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $1.6 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,354	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $5.3 trillion	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,308	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $32.2 trillion	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,175	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.7 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,159	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Russia Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.3 trillion	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,113	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
UK Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $3.8 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,034	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $1.7 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,007	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Russia Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.9 trillion	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	1,916	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.6 trillion	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	1,901	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.4 trillion	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,854	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.1 trillion	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	1,803	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.7 trillion	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,778	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
France Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $3.2 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,649	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.1 trillion	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,577	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Australia Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $1.6 trillion	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,537	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $3.2 trillion	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,514	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.3 trillion	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,446	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Germany Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $6.5 trillion	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,409	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Mexico Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $2.7 trillion	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,356	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Japan Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $4.6 trillion	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,334	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
US Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $30.4 trillion	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,234	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC
Canada Nominal GDP in 2026? · Above $3.1 trillion	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,225	Apr 01, 15:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 159 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.