Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Annual GDP on Kalshi
If the United States real GDP growth in 2036 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 154 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth in 2026? · 1.6% to 2.0% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 58,532 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 0.0% or Below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 49,066 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 3.1% to 3.5% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 48,727 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 4.1% to 4.5% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 44,051 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 2.1% to 2.5% | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 43,970 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 3.6% to 4.0% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 35,817 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 4.6% to 5.0% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 34,659 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 2.6% to 3.0% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 30,635 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 0.1% to 0.5% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 29,871 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 1.1% to 1.5% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,441 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 0.6% to 1.0% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 26,182 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2030? · 2.6% to 3.0% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 19,338 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 0.1% to 0.5% | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 16,751 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2026? · 6.1% or Above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 16,645 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 2.6% to 3.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 15,756 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 0.6% to 1.0% | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 15,214 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 1.6% to 2.0% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 15,122 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 2.1% to 2.5% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 14,922 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 6.1% or Above | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 14,329 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 6.1% or Above | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 14,245 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 2.1% to 2.5% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 13,538 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 3.1% to 3.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,254 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 4.6% to 5.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 13,222 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 4.6% to 5.0% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 13,001 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 2.1% to 2.5% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 12,954 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 3.6% to 4.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,780 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2032? · 2.1% to 2.5% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 12,485 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 0.1% to 0.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 12,274 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 3.6% to 4.0% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 12,185 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 1.1% to 1.5% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 12,113 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2030? · 0.0% or Below | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 12,069 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 0.6% to 1.0% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 11,836 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 4.6% to 5.0% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,832 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 0.1% to 0.5% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 11,337 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 0.0% or Below | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 11,226 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2035? · 0.0% or Below | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 10,934 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2028? · 1.6% to 2.0% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 10,813 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2031? · 2.1% to 2.5% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 10,575 | Feb 29, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2036? · 4.1% to 4.5% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,447 | Dec 31, 13:29 UTC |
| GDP growth in 2033? · 1.1% to 1.5% | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 10,429 | Feb 28, 13:29 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 154 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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