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Gemini app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Gemini app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 538.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
33%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
66% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 156.5 ? · Above 156.5 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,421 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 106.5 ? · Above 106.5 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,281 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 188 ? · Above 188 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 1,581 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 367 ? · Above 367 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 500 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 221.5 ? · Above 221.5 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 365 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 259.5 ? · Above 259.5 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 204 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 538.5 ? · Above 538.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gemini app downloads for November 2026 be above 305.5 ? · Above 305.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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