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who will be nominated for a Golden Globe on Kalshi
If Scarlett Johansson is on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 84th Golden Globe Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Golden Globes.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 249 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kathy Bates be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Kathy Bates | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22,373 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Natasha Lyonne be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Natasha Lyonne | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,938 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Studio be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · The Studio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,272 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Lasso be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Ted Lasso | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 9,973 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jenna Ortega be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Jenna Ortega | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,227 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jason Sudeikis be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Jason Sudeikis | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 7,468 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pluribus be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Pluribus | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,865 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christopher Abbott be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Limited Series at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Christopher Abbott | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,393 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nobody Wants This be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Nobody Wants This | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 6,263 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Bear be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · The Bear | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 6,005 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Gilded Age be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · The Gilded Age | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 5,800 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ayo Edebiri be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Ayo Edebiri | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 5,138 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christopher Nolan be on the list of nominees for Best Director at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Christopher Nolan | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 5,121 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will House of the Dragon be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · House of the Dragon | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 5,090 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jamie Bell be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Limited Series at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Jamie Bell | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 4,679 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Walton Goggins be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Walton Goggins | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 4,623 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kristen Bell be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Kristen Bell | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 4,547 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Hiddleston be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Tom Hiddleston | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 4,291 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adam Brody be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Adam Brody | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 4,158 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Seth Rogen be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Seth Rogen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 4,099 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Shawn Hatosy be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actor on TV at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Shawn Hatosy | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 3,823 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will I Play Rocky be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · I Play Rocky | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 3,809 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Katherine LaNasa be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actress on TV at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Katherine LaNasa | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 3,723 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julianne Moore be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Julianne Moore | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,675 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carrie Coon be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Carrie Coon | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 3,661 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nick Offerman be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actor on TV at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Nick Offerman | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 3,600 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gary Oldman be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Gary Oldman | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,457 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Melton be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actor on TV at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Charles Melton | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,886 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tessa Thompson be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Limited Series at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Tessa Thompson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,809 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Project Hail Mary | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,807 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Ippolito be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Anthony Ippolito | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 2,639 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meryl Streep be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Meryl Streep | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,607 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Michael | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,531 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · The Odyssey | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,528 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeremy Allen White be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Jeremy Allen White | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,355 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cape Fear be on the list of nominees for Best Television Series - Limited Series at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Cape Fear | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,352 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaafar Jackson be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Jaafar Jackson | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,332 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Possible Love be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Possible Love | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2,247 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Infiniti be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Chase Infiniti | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,223 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Digger be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards? · Digger | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 2,113 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 249 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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