Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
GOLDDIRY on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above 3200 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Gold.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,300 or above | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 95,280 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,400 or above | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 73,803 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,500 or above | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 40,048 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,600 or above | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 32,442 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 5500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 5,500 or above | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 31,956 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4800 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,800 or above | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 28,266 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4900 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,900 or above | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 24,239 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 5000 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 5,000 or above | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 20,552 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,700 or above | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 19,100 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 5400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 5,400 or above | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 13,601 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 5100 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 5,100 or above | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10,840 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 5200 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 5,200 or above | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9,012 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 5300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 5,300 or above | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,586 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4000 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,000 or above | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 7,104 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4200 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,200 or above | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 4,976 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 4100 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 4,100 or above | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 4,530 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3900 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,900 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,985 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,700 or above | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,025 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3800 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,800 or above | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 891 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,500 or above | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 676 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,600 or above | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 312 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,400 or above | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 104 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the price of Gold be above 3300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST? · 3,300 or above | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 43 | Dec 31, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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