Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Gold Monthly Price on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 4643.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Gold.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 80¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.70 | 81.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4163.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4163.99 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 6,200 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4083.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4083.99 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 3,268 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4043.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4043.99 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,685 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4003.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4003.99 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,479 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4323.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4323.99 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,041 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3923.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3923.99 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 986 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3963.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3963.99 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 888 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4283.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4283.99 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 730 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3603.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3603.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 469 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3443.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3443.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 428 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3763.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3763.99 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 310 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4123.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4123.99 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 249 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4203.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4203.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 244 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3883.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3883.99 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 241 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3083.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3083.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 212 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4243.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4243.99 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 127 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3483.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3483.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 111 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3803.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3803.99 | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 102 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4483.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4483.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 100 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3843.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3843.99 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 67 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4603.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4603.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 51 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3723.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3723.99 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 35 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3643.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3643.99 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 28 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3523.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3523.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4443.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4443.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4363.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4363.99 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 10 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3323.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3323.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4643.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4643.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4563.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4563.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4523.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4523.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4403.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4403.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3683.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3683.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3563.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3563.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3403.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3403.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3363.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3363.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3283.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3283.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3243.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3243.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3203.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3203.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3163.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3163.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3123.99 USD/t.oz on November 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3123.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 30, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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