Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Gold Weekly price on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 4468.99 USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Gold.
Market says (typical open contract)
59%
Median YES price across 40 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 59¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.44 | 60.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4128.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4128.99 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,804 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4288.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4288.99 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,164 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4048.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4048.99 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 1,117 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4148.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4148.99 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1,076 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4268.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4268.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,030 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4168.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4168.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,029 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4108.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4108.99 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,017 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4308.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4308.99 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,003 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4088.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4088.99 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 935 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4068.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4068.99 | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 690 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4208.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4208.99 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 657 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4248.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4248.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 628 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4188.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4188.99 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 306 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3948.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3948.99 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 283 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4008.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4008.99 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 245 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4408.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4408.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 117 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4028.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4028.99 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 57 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3968.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3968.99 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 51 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3988.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3988.99 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 46 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4228.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4228.99 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 30 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3768.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3768.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4468.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4468.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4448.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4448.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4428.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4428.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4388.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4388.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4368.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4368.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4348.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4348.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4328.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $4328.99 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3928.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3928.99 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3908.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3908.99 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3888.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3888.99 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3868.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3868.99 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3848.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3848.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3828.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3828.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3808.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3808.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3788.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3788.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3748.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3748.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3728.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3728.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3708.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3708.99 | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 3688.99 USD/t.oz on November 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3688.99 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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