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Gonorrhea case count on Kalshi
If the total number of gonorrhea cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 500000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, World Health Organization.
Market says (typical open contract)
76%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
47% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 77¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.80 | 78.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 500k | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 6,656 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 400k | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 3,604 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 450000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 450k | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,509 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 350k | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,477 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 375000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 375k | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,090 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 425000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 425k | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,593 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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