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When will a Republican candidate win a delegate majority? on Kalshi
If the Associated Press reports that a candidate has won a majority of the delegates to the 2028 Republican National Convention before September 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
65%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 65¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.23 | 66.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a Republican win a delegate majority before September 1, 2028? · Before Sep 1, 2028 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Sep 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Republican win a delegate majority before June 15, 2028? · Before Jun 15, 2028 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jun 15, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Republican win a delegate majority before June 1, 2028? · Before Jun 1, 2028 | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jun 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Republican win a delegate majority before May 1, 2028? · Before May 1, 2028 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | May 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Republican win a delegate majority before April 1, 2028? · Before Apr 1, 2028 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Apr 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will a Republican win a delegate majority before March 15, 2028? · Before Mar 15, 2028 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Mar 15, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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