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House Republicans voting to impeach Trump on Kalshi
If the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump is at least 5 during his second term as President, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
49% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.66 | 25.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump be at least 1 during his second term as President? · At least 1 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2,316 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump be at least 10 during his second term as President? · At least 10 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,726 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump be at least 5 during his second term as President? · At least 5 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 305 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump be at least 3 during his second term as President? · At least 3 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 61 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Representatives voting Yea on the first House vote to impeach Donald Trump be at least 2 during his second term as President? · At least 2 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 36 | Jan 21, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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