What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.50.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 0% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Alaska governor on Kalshi

If Lesil McGuire is elected the governor of Alaska pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

0% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	99¢	99%	0.0¢	—	1%	513,316	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Bernadette Wilson	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	275,332	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Tom Begich	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	275,089	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Treg Taylor	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	89,546	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Dave Bronson	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	71,754	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Click Bishop	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	39,375	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Mary Peltola	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	22,048	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Adam Crum	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	19,820	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Nancy Dahlstrom	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	16,421	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Bill Walker	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	15,125	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Matt Heilala	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	14,775	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Shelley Hughes	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	7,762	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Matthew Claman	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	6,696	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Lesil McGuire	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	6,362	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Lisa Murkowski	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	4,665	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the governorship in Alaska? · Edna DeVries	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	3,859	Nov 03, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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