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Kentucky Governor Republican nominee on Kalshi
If Kelly Craft wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2027 Kentucky Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kentucky State Board of Elections.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Comer be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · James Comer | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,515 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Rick Hardin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Rick Hardin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kelly Craft be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Kelly Craft | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Nate Morris | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Thomas Massie | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Savannah Maddox be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Savannah Maddox | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Daniel Cameron | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruiser Martin be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Bruiser Martin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 17, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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