Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Governor race winner? on Kalshi
If the person sworn in as Governor of Virginia pursuant to the 2029 election is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: US State Governments.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
81% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 59¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.44 | 60.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2029 Virginia governor race? · Republican party | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2029 Virginia governor race? · Democratic party | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2029 New Jersey governor race? · Republican party | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2029 New Jersey governor race? · Democratic party | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 06, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New Hampshire governor race? · Republican party | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New Hampshire governor race? · Democratic party | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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