Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Government budget increases on Kalshi
If government spending increases by at least $750 billion above the Q4 2025 level in any quarter during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FRED.
Market says (typical open contract)
95%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will government spending increase by 1000000000000 before 2027? · At least $1 trillion | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 15,261 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 500000000000 before 2027? · At least $500 billion | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 8,036 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 400000000000 before 2027? · At least $400 billion | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 3,813 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 750000000000 before 2027? · At least $750 billion | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 2,104 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 300000000000 before 2027? · At least $300 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,503 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 200000000000 before 2027? · At least $200 billion | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 817 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 1000000000 before 2027? · At least $1 billion | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 62 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 50000000000 before 2027? · At least $50 billion | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 36 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will government spending increase by 100000000000 before 2027? · At least $100 billion | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 28 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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