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If Grab Holdings Limited reports Above 62000000.0 monthly transacting users in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 62 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 62 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 8,569 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 56.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 56.5 million | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 3,055 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 60 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 60 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2,911 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 61.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 61.5 million | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2,783 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 56 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 56 million | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2,518 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 59 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 59 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,448 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 60.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 60.5 million | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 2,351 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 61 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 61 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,340 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 58 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 58 million | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2,332 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 57 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 57 million | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 1,893 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 55 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 55 million | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,609 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 55.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 55.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,083 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 58.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 58.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 714 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 57.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 57.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 622 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 59.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026? · Above 59.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 287 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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