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Grammy for Album of the Year on Kalshi

If Through the Wall has won Album of the Year at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Recording Academy.

Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)0.1¢$3.471.1%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love44¢44%1.7¢—88%26,084Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Lux win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Lux24¢24%1.3¢—49%21,381Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will The Art of Loving win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Art of Loving20¢20%1.1¢—39%17,024Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Dandelion win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Dandelion4¢4%0.3¢—9%10,713Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Life of a Showgirl2¢2%0.1¢—3%9,650Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will The Great Divide win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Great Divide6¢6%0.4¢—13%9,533Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Lost Weekend win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Lost Weekend2¢2%0.1¢—3%8,822Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally1¢1%0.1¢—2%3,309Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will The Romantics win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Romantic0¢0%0.0¢—1%2,757Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Tie win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Tie1¢1%0.1¢—2%2,121Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Arirang win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Arirang0¢0%0.0¢—1%1,643Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will ICEMAN win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · ICEMAN0¢0%0.0¢—1%1,102Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Through the Wall win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Through the Wall0¢0%0.0¢—1%100Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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