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Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 210 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 145.5 ? · Above 145.5 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 21,600 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 124 ? · Above 124 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 7,536 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 115 ? · Above 115 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 5,473 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 75 ? · Above 75 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,334 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 94.5 ? · Above 94.5 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 3,196 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 101 ? · Above 101 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 2,893 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 210 ? · Above 210 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,838 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 107.5 ? · Above 107.5 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 2,641 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 87.5 ? · Above 87.5 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,200 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 188.5 ? · Above 188.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Grubhub: Food Delivery app downloads for November 2026 be above 167 ? · Above 167 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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