Markets › Kalshi › Financials
GitLab quarter kpi on Kalshi
If GitLab Inc. reports Above 1655 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1645 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1645 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 447 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1655 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1655 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 374 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1640 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1640 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 334 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1615 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1615 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 305 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1635 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1635 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 106 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1605 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1605 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1630 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1630 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1625 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1625 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will GitLab Inc. report Above 1620 customers with arr over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 1620 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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