Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Guatemala Congress on Kalshi
If the winner of the next Guatemalan Congressional election is Vision with Values, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · National Unity of Hope | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 6,812 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · Vamos | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 5,053 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · Cabal | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 500 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · Movimiento Semilla | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 340 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · Vision with Values | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · Valor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election? · Todos | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 30, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.