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Cincinnati heating degree days on Kalshi
If the cumulative sum of Heating Degree Days (HDD) at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport (station identifier KCVG, WMO identifier 72421) is below 1,650.00 between Oct 1, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,300.00? · Below 1,300.00 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 11,367 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,550.00? · Below 1,550.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3,461 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,400.00? · Below 1,400.00 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,803 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,450.00? · Below 1,450.00 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,713 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,250.00? · Below 1,250.00 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,492 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,650.00? · Below 1,650.00 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,313 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,350.00? · Below 1,350.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 776 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,500.00? · Below 1,500.00 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 675 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| HDD at Cincinnati below 1,600.00? · Below 1,600.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 355 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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