What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Hegseth announces he's leaving as Secretary of Defense on Kalshi

If Pete Hegseth leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of Defense before Dec 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: person, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

40% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	209,676	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	167,143	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Dec 25, 2026? · Before Dec 25, 2026	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	4,765	Dec 25, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Nov 13, 2026? · Before Nov 13, 2026	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	4,162	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Nov 27, 2026? · Before Nov 27, 2026	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	1,611	Nov 27, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Nov 20, 2026? · Before Nov 20, 2026	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,136	Nov 20, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Dec 18, 2026? · Before Dec 18, 2026	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	60%	900	Dec 18, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Dec 4, 2026? · Before Dec 4, 2026	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	266	Dec 04, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth announce their departure as Secretary of Defense before Dec 11, 2026? · Before Dec 11, 2026	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	115	Dec 11, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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