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Heisman Trophy Winner Specials on Kalshi
If the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner wins the college football National Championship in the 2026-27 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player from the Big Ten college football conference? · Big Ten | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 8,113 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player from the SEC college football conference? · SEC | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,321 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner win the college football National Championship in the 2026-27 season? · Heisman Trophy winner to win the National Championship | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 5,071 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as a Junior? · Junior | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 3,817 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player from the ACC college football conference? · ACC | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 3,597 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player from an Independent school or any college football conference other than the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12? · Independent/Any other conference | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 2,984 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as a Senior/Graduate student? · Senior/Graduate | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,733 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player from the Big 12 college football conference? · Big 12 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,499 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as a Sophomore? · Sophomore | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 742 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner be a player who is designated as a Freshman? · Freshman | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 424 | Jan 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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