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highest sale price on Kalshi
If highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys is above $900000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sotheby’s.
Market says (typical open contract)
15%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
30% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.98 | 15.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $250000 in 2026? · Above $250K | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2,121 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $1000000 in 2026? · Above $1M | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,011 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $400000 in 2026? · Above $400K | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 718 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $500000 in 2026? · Above $500K | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 455 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $150000 in 2026? · Above $150K | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 345 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $300000 in 2026? · Above $300K | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 262 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $200000 in 2026? · Above $200K | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 229 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $800000 in 2026? · Above $800K | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 154 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $600000 in 2026? · Above $600K | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 63 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $900000 in 2026? · Above $900K | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 52 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will highest auction sale price of any Hermès Birkin bag sold at auction on Sothebys be above $700000 in 2026? · Above $700K | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 22 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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