Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Highest temperature in Chicago on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
27%
For the most traded contract (66° or above): market 60%, our simple model 27%. NWS forecast high 64°F for 2026-11-10 at Chicago (Midway), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Nov 10, 2026? · 66° or above | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | 27% | 80% | 7,304 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Nov 10, 2026? · 62° to 63° | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | 26% | 12% | 3,802 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 60-61° on Nov 10, 2026? · 60° to 61° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 12% | 3% | 2,764 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Nov 10, 2026? · 64° to 65° | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | 31% | 71% | 2,507 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 58-59° on Nov 10, 2026? · 58° to 59° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 3% | 1% | 1,246 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <58° on Nov 10, 2026? · 57° or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 0% | 1% | 123 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.