Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (CLILAX) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 89° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
7%
For the most traded contract (82° to 83°): market 18%, our simple model 7%. NWS forecast high 87°F for 2026-11-10 at Los Angeles (LAX), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 82-83° on Nov 10, 2026? · 82° to 83° | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | 7% | 35% | 8,213 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 86-87° on Nov 10, 2026? · 86° to 87° | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | 31% | 59% | 7,201 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 88-89° on Nov 10, 2026? · 88° to 89° | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | 26% | 11% | 4,994 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 84-85° on Nov 10, 2026? · 84° to 85° | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | 19% | 99% | 4,768 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <82° on Nov 10, 2026? · 81° or below | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 1% | 3% | 3,257 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >89° on Nov 10, 2026? · 90° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 16% | 1% | 2,691 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.