Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Daily High Temperature Houston on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Houston (CLIHOU) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
16%
For the most traded contract (72° or below): market 52%, our simple model 16%. NWS forecast high 75°F for 2026-11-10 at Houston (Hobby), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be <66° on Nov 9, 2026? · 65° or below | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,642 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Nov 9, 2026? · 66° to 67° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,968 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Nov 9, 2026? · 68° to 69° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,188 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Nov 9, 2026? · 70° to 71° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,166 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <73° on Nov 10, 2026? · 72° or below | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | 16% | 97% | 677 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Nov 10, 2026? · 73° to 74° | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | 26% | 68% | 343 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 72-73° on Nov 9, 2026? · 72° to 73° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 295 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >73° on Nov 9, 2026? · 74° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 181 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Nov 10, 2026? · 75° to 76° | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | 31% | 32% | 103 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 79-80° on Nov 10, 2026? · 79° to 80° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 7% | 3% | 59 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >80° on Nov 10, 2026? · 81° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 1% | 1% | 20 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 77-78° on Nov 10, 2026? · 77° to 78° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | 19% | 5% | 19 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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