Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Minneapolis Daily High Temperature on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Minneapolis (CLIMSP) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 60° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
8%
For the most traded contract (61° or above): market 66%, our simple model 8%. NWS forecast high 57°F for 2026-11-10 at Minneapolis (MSP), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Nov 9, 2026? · 61° to 62° | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,288 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >62° on Nov 9, 2026? · 63° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,887 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on Nov 9, 2026? · 59° to 60° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,905 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >60° on Nov 10, 2026? · 61° or above | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | 8% | 67% | 2,463 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° on Nov 9, 2026? · 57° to 58° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,257 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 55-56° on Nov 9, 2026? · 55° to 56° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 936 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on Nov 10, 2026? · 59° to 60° | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | 19% | 49% | 648 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° on Nov 10, 2026? · 57° to 58° | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | 31% | 14% | 334 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <55° on Nov 9, 2026? · 54° or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 116 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 55-56° on Nov 10, 2026? · 55° to 56° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 26% | 3% | 109 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <53° on Nov 10, 2026? · 52° or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 4% | 1% | 100 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 53-54° on Nov 10, 2026? · 53° to 54° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 12% | 3% | 83 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.