Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
San Francisco High Temperature Daily on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 76° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
19%
For the most traded contract (75° to 76°): market 10%, our simple model 19%. NWS forecast high 73°F for 2026-11-10 at San Francisco (SFO), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
19% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 75-76° on Nov 10, 2026? · 75° to 76° | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | 19% | 19% | 1,463 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >76° on Nov 10, 2026? · 77° or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 8% | 3% | 586 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 71-72° on Nov 10, 2026? · 71° to 72° | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | 26% | 73% | 489 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 69-70° on Nov 10, 2026? · 69° to 70° | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | 12% | 14% | 451 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 73-74° on Nov 10, 2026? · 73° to 74° | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | 31% | 83% | 406 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <69° on Nov 10, 2026? · 68° or below | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | 4% | 5% | 198 | Nov 11, 09:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.