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House Judiciary ranking member on Kalshi
If Scott Fitzgerald is the first Ranking Member of House Judiciary for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Clerk of the House of Representatives , the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scott Fitzgerald be Ranking Member of House Judiciary? · Scott Fitzgerald | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Laurel Lee be Ranking Member of House Judiciary? · Laurel Lee | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jim Jordan be Ranking Member of House Judiciary? · Jim Jordan | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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