Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Monthly Temperature Increase (ºC) on Kalshi
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Nov 2026 is above 1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? · 1.30001 or above | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,692 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? · 1.17 to 1.23 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,110 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? · 1.24 to 1.30 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,079 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? · 1.03 to 1.09 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,095 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? · 1.02999 or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,869 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Oct 2026 temperature increase? · 1.10 to 1.16 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 653 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Nov 2026 temperature increase? · 1.30001 or above | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 312 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Nov 2026 temperature increase? · 1.17 to 1.23 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 142 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Nov 2026 temperature increase? · 1.10 to 1.16 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 113 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Nov 2026 temperature increase? · 1.24 to 1.30 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 40 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Nov 2026 temperature increase? · 1.03 to 1.09 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 14 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Nov 2026 temperature increase? · 1.02999 or below | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.