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How high will average weekly Hormuz transits get in 2026? on Kalshi
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 40 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 65,133 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 60 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 38,945 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 30 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 30 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 25,637 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 70 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 23,414 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 50 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 21,086 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 90 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 20,200 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 80 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 16,358 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 100 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 12,603 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 120 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 120 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,381 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 110 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 110 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 541 | Jan 05, 13:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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