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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? on Kalshi
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before December 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: IMF PortWatch.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,914,991 | Jan 05, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,177,893 | Dec 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,665,166 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 879,479 | Apr 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 92,654 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2027? · Before Nov 1, 2027 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 81,559 | Nov 02, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 65,659 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 55,870 | Jul 01, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before June 1, 2027? · Before Jun 1, 2027 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 30,710 | Jun 08, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before February 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 29,822 | Feb 02, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2027? · Before Dec 1, 2027 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 24,175 | Dec 07, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 7,537 | May 04, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before March 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 4,260 | Mar 02, 13:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 2,844 | Aug 03, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,723 | Oct 05, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2027? · Before Sep 1, 2027 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,792 | Sep 07, 12:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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