What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 29¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.50.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 30% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 29%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Kalshi

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: IMF PortWatch.

Market says (typical open contract)

29%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

57% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
29¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.49	30.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 50	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	53,950	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 40 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 40	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	24,460	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 15	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	20,412	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 25	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	7,360	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 27 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 27	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	5,242	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 30	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	4,666	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 23 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 23	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	85%	4,342	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 20 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 20	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	2,433	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC
Will there be more than 35 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Nov 9, 2026 to Nov 15, 2026? · Above 35	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,222	Nov 17, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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