What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 4¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.36.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 4%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

House Democratic leader race: who will run? on Kalshi

If Ted Lieu has announced that they will run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

8% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
4¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.36	4.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	8,749	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Katherine Clark announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Katherine Clark	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	6,963	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Ted Lieu announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Ted Lieu	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	4,789	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Rashida Tlaib announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Rashida Tlaib	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	238	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pete Aguilar announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Pete Aguilar	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	1	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Joe Neguse announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Joe Neguse	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	1	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Pramila Jayapal announce a run for House Democratic leader for the 120th Congress in 2026? · Pramila Jayapal	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.