What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.50.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 0% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

National House popular vote margin? on Kalshi

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

0% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote? · Republicans win	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,801,967	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%? · Democrats, 12 to 14%	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	853,289	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%? · Democrats, 14 to 16%	88¢	88%	0.8¢	—	25%	711,621	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%? · Democrats, 0 to 2%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	710,614	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%? · Democrats, 10 to 12%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	649,557	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 16 and 100%? · Democrats, 16% and above	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	590,340	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%? · Democrats, 8 to 10%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	533,104	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%? · Democrats, 6 to 8%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	528,071	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%? · Democrats, 2 to 4%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	526,371	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%? · Democrats, 4 to 6%	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	375,605	Nov 03, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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