Markets › Kalshi › Elections
House Race Winner? on Kalshi
If the House member sworn in for the At-Large District of Wyoming for the term beginning in 2029 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Library of Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 898 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republican win the House race for NC-03? · Greg Murphy | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 5,983,342 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for NC-03? · Raymond Smith Jr. | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,273,616 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for CO-04? · Lauren Boebert | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 693,275 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for CO-04? · Eileen Laubacher | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 571,481 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for MN-01? · Jake Johnson | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 425,952 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for NC-05? · Virginia Foxx | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 362,116 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for MN-01? · Brad Finstad | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 338,339 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for NC-05? · Chuck Hubbard | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 305,814 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for FL-27? · Eliott Rodriguez | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 273,331 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for FL-27? · Maria Elvira Salazar | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 237,616 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for FL-09? · Darren Soto | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 228,982 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for FL-09? · Dan Green | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 208,199 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for CA-23? · Tessa Lynn Hodge | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 207,747 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for CA-23? · Jay Obernolte | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 134,667 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for SC-02? · Joe Wilson | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 131,260 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for SC-02? · Zyon Khalifa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 129,257 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for FL-07? · Bale Dalton | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 122,792 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for NC-07? · Kim Hardy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 0% | 114,108 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for TN-04? · Victoria Broderick | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107,540 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for LA-06? · Chauna Banks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 107,536 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for NC-07? · David Rouzer | 99¢ | 99% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 105,630 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for FL-07? · Ryan Elijah | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 94,653 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for TN-04? · Scott DesJarlais | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 83,424 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for LA-06? · Blake Miguez | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 79,242 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for OH-08? · Democratic party | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 23,819 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 House race for AZ-09? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 19,715 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republican win the House race for LA-05? · Gabe Firment | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 19,537 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 House race for AZ-08? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 17,002 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic win the House race for NC-10? · Ashley Bell | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,819 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for OH-05? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 12,432 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 House race for WA-04? · Republican party | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 11,919 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for IN-02? · Democratic party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 11,569 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for AR-02? · Democratic party | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 11,480 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for AR-03? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,332 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 House race for WI-05? · Republican party | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 11,058 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 House race for FL-12? · Republican party | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 10,932 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for NJ-11? · Democratic party | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 9,610 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for NY-20? · Democratic party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 9,392 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 House race for IL-16? · Democratic party | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 9,315 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 House race for IL-14? · Republican party | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 9,290 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 898 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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